Impact of US tariffs on the mold industry

Impact of US tariffs on the mold industry

I. Current status of tariff policy and industry impact

Tariff structure and exemption scope

Tax rate stratification: The tariff for precision injection molds (HS 8480.71) is 25%, with a 7% "technical safety surcharge", while medical molds (such as ventilator component molds) enjoy a temporary tariff of 5% (until the end of 2025);

Anti-circumvention review: The US Customs has launched a "third-country re-export" traceability mechanism (such as molds exported through Vietnam need to provide full supply chain proof), and violating companies face a 200% punitive tariff.

Trade data changes

Export scale: In 2024, China's mold exports to the United States will drop by 18.7% year-on-year (6.2 billion → 5.04 billion US dollars), but the EU market will grow by 23% (reaching 4.1 billion US dollars);

Share transfer: Mexico's mold exports to the United States will soar from 900 million in 2020 to 3.8 billion US dollars in 2025, squeezing out some of China's low-end and mid-end markets.

Second, three-dimensional impact analysis

Cost pressure and profit erosion

Comprehensive cost: 25% tariff + 10% logistics premium + 5% exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in the company's gross profit margin being compressed to 8-12% (18-22% in 2019);

Typical case: A Guangdong automobile mold factory lowered its quotation for US orders by 10%, but reduced costs by 15% through AI design, and maintained a stable net profit margin of 5.5%.

Regional reconstruction of the industrial chain

Nearshore trend: Tesla requires Chinese suppliers to set up factories in Monterrey, Mexico (localization rate ≥ 60%), and Ningbo Xusheng invested US$420 million to build a North American base;

Technology decoupling: The export of high-end five-axis CNC systems (such as DMG DMU 65) to China is restricted, forcing Shanghai Weihong and other companies to increase the domestic substitution rate to 45%.

Technological blockade and innovation forced

Patent barriers: The US ITC cited Section 337 to restrict China's 3D printing mold technology (involving Liantai Technology, etc.), and promoted the joint efforts of schools and enterprises to tackle the localization of metal powder (cost reduction of 30%);

R&D investment: In 2025, the R&D intensity of the mold industry will increase to 4.2% (1.8% in 2019), with key breakthroughs in quantum mold simulation (Huawei Cloud) and conformal cooling water integrated printing.

3. Path of coordinated response between enterprises and policies

Diversified market layout

Emerging markets: ASEAN mold demand increased by 14% annually (mainly home appliances and electronics), and Haier Mold set up a factory in Rayong Industrial Zone, Thailand (capacity of 500,000 sets/year);

Local substitution: China's new energy vehicle mold self-sufficiency rate will increase from 55% in 2020 to 82% in 2025 (BYD and CATL supply chain closed loop).

Technology Leap Strategy

Intelligent Upgrade: AI mold design software (such as AutoMold 2025) shortens the development cycle by 40%, and Suzhou Shengli Precision introduces a digital twin system (reducing the number of mold trials by 70%);

Material Revolution: Carbon fiber-PEEK composite molds (50% weight reduction) replace traditional steel molds to avoid the US tariff classification of "steel products".

Policy Tool Hedging

Export Tax Rebate: The mold tax rebate rate is increased from 9% to 13% (the Ministry of Finance's 2024 new policy), and the annual increase in corporate cash flow is about 12 billion yuan;

Free Trade Agreement: Under the RCEP framework, the export tariff to Indonesia/Malaysia is reduced to 0-5%, and the China-EU CAI agreement breaks through the EU technical certification barriers.

IV. Long-term Trends and Industry Reshaping

Supply Chain Resilience Reconstruction

Dual Circulation Node: Dongguan Haoshun Mold creates a "Shenzhen R&D + Dongguan Smart Manufacturing + Southeast Asia Assembly" model, and tariff-sensitive links are moved outward;

Modular Division of Labor: Mold components are split to Hungary (EU) and Vietnam (ASEAN) for assembly, and the proportion of complete machine exports is reduced from 80% to 45%.

Green trade game

Carbon tariff impact: The United States plans to impose an 8% carbon tax on non-green electricity production molds (effective in 2026), forcing the industry's green electricity penetration rate to exceed 60% (Longi photovoltaic direct supply plan has been implemented);

ESG financing: ICBC launched the "Mold Green Loan" (interest rate 4.35%), and Qingdao Haier Mold received a low-interest loan of 5 billion yuan with a 78% green electricity utilization rate.

Technology sovereignty competition

Quantum computing: Huawei Cloud Quantum Mold Simulation Service (QCS) optimizes efficiency by 300%, solving the problem of conformal cooling water channel design;

Industrial software breakthrough: ZW3D 2025 version realizes the localization of five-axis programming (compatibility reaches 95% of Siemens NX), replacing 12,000 sets of foreign authorizations annually.

For our factory, the impact of US tariffs on us is not very large. Most of our mold customers leave the molds in our factory, and we help customers produce plastic products. We have many different options for transportation, which can alleviate the impact of US tariffs to a certain extent.